Asymmetric thresholds of macroeconomic volatility's impact on stock volatility in developing economies: a study in Vietnam

Abstract

PurposeThis paper examines the impact of macroeconomic volatility on stock volatility, both under normal conditions and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachWe extend the existing Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model by adding a new component: the thresholds – the levels of macroeconomic volatility at which the market may respond differently. These thresholds are estimated for both positive and negative volatility.FindingsThe impact of macroeconomic volatility on stock volatility is asymmetric: there are thresholds of macroeconomic volatility at which its pattern changes. These thresholds are higher in the case of positive volatility compared with negative volatility. The thresholds were also higher during the COVID-19 pandemic. Macroeconomic variables influence stock volatility differently depending on market conditions. While GDP is more significant in normal periods, interest rates affect it in both normal and unstable phases.Research limitations/implicationsOur models consider only two variables representing macroeconomic variables: interest rate and GDP. Furthermore, only one lag period of the variables is included in the analysis. In the future, more macrovariables and longer lags could be included when computational techniques advance.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should consider the impact of macroeconomic volatility on the stock market when designing policies, especially at thresholds. Similarly, investors should pay more attention to macroeconomic volatility when constructing and managing their portfolios, particularly when such volatility is close to thresholds.Originality/valueThe inclusion of thresholds as parameters to be estimated into the model provides more insights into the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock volatility.