Asymmetric response of the Indian summer monsoon to positive and negative phases of major tropical climate patterns

Abstract

The existing theories for the tropical teleconnections to Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are diverse in approaches. As a result, it is impossible to quantify the relative impacts of different tropical climate patterns on ISM, complying with a single physical mechanism. Here, we show that tropical teleconnections to ISM can be explained through net moisture convergence driven by surface pressure (Ps) gradients surrounding the Indian region. The positive and negative phases of major tropical climate patterns modulate these pressure gradients asymmetrically in the zonal and/or meridional directions leading to asymmetric changes in moisture convergence and ISM rainfall (ISMR). Stronger El Nino droughts than La Nina floods are due to greater decreased eastward moisture flux over the Arabian Sea during El Nino than the corresponding increase during La Nina driven by proportionate meridional Ps gradients. While the equatorial Atlantic Ocean’s sea surface temperature in boreal summer and El Nino Southern Oscillation in the preceding winter changes ISMR significantly, moisture convergence anomalies driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole were insignificant. Moreover, while ISMR extremes during ENSO are due to asymmetric changes in zonal and meridional gradients in Ps, non-ENSO ISMR extremes arise due to the zonal gradient in zonally symmetric Ps anomalies.