Abstract
ABSTRACT.The complexity of transmission of COVID-19 in the human population cannot be overstated. Although major transmission routes of COVID-19 remain as human-to-human interactions, understanding the possible role of climatic and weather processes in accelerating such interactions is still a challenge. The majority of studies on the transmission of this disease have suggested a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, we show that the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and temperature is a complex function of prevailing climatic conditions influencing human behavior that govern virus transmission dynamics. We note that under a dry (low-moisture) environment, notably at dew point temperatures below 0°C, the incidence of the disease was highest. Prevalence of the virus in the human population, when ambient air temperatures were higher than 24°C or lower than 17°C, was hypothesized to be a function of the interaction between humans and the built or ambient environment. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24°C was identified, within which virus transmission appears to decrease, leading to a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.
Highlights
On December 27, 2019, a local hospital in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, notified the Chinese Center for Disease Control and relevant health commissions of a mysterious pneumonic disease cluster
The literature suggests symptoms for COVID-19 begin to appear in humans within a median range of 4.1 days of exposure,[14] and for this study, we used a 4-day running average for air and dew point temperatures
The other two outbreak epicenters included in this study (Tehran, Iran, and Munich, Germany) revealed consistent climatic conditions (Figure 1)—namely, negative dew point temperature prior to the COVID-19 outbreak (Figure 1)
Summary
On December 27, 2019, a local hospital in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, notified the Chinese Center for Disease Control and relevant health commissions of a mysterious pneumonic disease cluster. Observations based on actual COVID-19 occurring in humans at different locations (e.g., within the United States, India, China) indicate that warm temperature may have a similar impact on prevalence of the disease, creating a paradox. It raises a critical question concerning the role and relationship of ambient air and dew point temperatures and incidence of COVID-19, which comprise the
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