Abstract
Global warming and its associated changes in the timing of seasonal progression may produce substantial ripple effects on the regional climate and ecosystem. This study analyzes the surface air temperature recorded during the period 1919–2017 at seven stations in the Republic of Korea to investigate the long-term changes at the beginning and ending of the summer season and their relationship with the warming trends of spring and autumn. The temperatures at the starting (June 1) and ending (August 31) dates of the past period (1919–1948) advanced by 13 days and delayed by 4 days, respectively, for the recent period (1988–2017). This asymmetric change was caused by continuous warming in May for the entire period of analysis and an abrupt warming in September in the recent decades. Different amplitudes of the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high in May and September are responsible for the asymmetric expansion of the summer season. The projections of surface warming for spring and autumn in Korea used the downscaled grid data of a regional climate model, which were obtained by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario of a general circulation model, and indicated a continuous positive trend until 2100. Larger interannual variability of blooming timing of early autumn flowers than that of late spring flowers may represent the response of the ecosystem to the seasonally asymmetric surface warming. Results suggest that the shift of seasons and associated warming trend have a disturbing effect on an ecosystem, and this trend will intensify in the future.
Highlights
This study presented the asymmetric changes in the seasonal progression of summer and its effects on the spring and autumn warming trends using long-term observations in Korea
The Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model projected that the asymmetric warming trends for spring and autumn would continue in the twenty-first century
The more pronounced spring warming trend was associated with greater advancement of the ending date of winter, and it was not related to the summer progression differing from the results of observation
Summary
The warming rates in winter and spring are higher than in summer and autumn (Jung et al 2002; Choi et al 2007; Kug and Ahn 2013; NIMS 2018). Such heterogeneous warming trends during all the seasons may be related to the expansion and/or shift of seasons (Oh et al 2004). This study investigates the long-term changes at the beginning and end of the summer season and their impact on the warming trend in neighboring seasons (i.e., late spring and early autumn). We discuss the implications of warming on plant phenology in spring and autumn
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