Abstract
The paper aims to examine the nonlinear effects of rice, wheat and maize crop production on agricultural growth in India from 1960 to 2019. Nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) and granger causality test are used to achieve the objective. Bound cointegration test establishes the long-run relationship among the wheat, rice, maize production, and agricultural growth in India. Wald test confirms the asymmetric effects of maize, rice and wheat production on agricultural growth in the long run. In the short run, only for the wheat crop, the asymmetric effect is found. In the long run, the NARDL model shows the positive relationship from the positive and negative shocks in maize and rice production to agriculture growth. While for the wheat crop, there is a positive relationship between a positive shock in wheat production and agriculture growth in the long run. Finally, based on the results, the study reveals that agriculture growth is asymmetrically affected by the maize, rice, and wheat crops. According to the findings of the study, when developing, agricultural policies, policy makers should take into account the nonlinear effects of crops in agriculture.
Highlights
In the low- and middle-income group of countries, agriculture is a source of livelihood as food and raw materials
The current study intends to investigate the nonlinear effects of cereal crops, i.e., maize, rice, and wheat on agricultural economic growth
Wald test establish the existence of nonlinear effects of cereals crops on agricultural economic growth in India
Summary
In the low- and middle-income group of countries, agriculture is a source of livelihood as food and raw materials. India is the world’s second-most populated country after China, with a population of 1.36 billion people contributing around 16% of the national gross domestic product (GDP). Some paper used different cereals crops, namely maize, wheat, rice, cotton by employing the ARDL model to examine the linear association between the independent and dependent variable (Mapfumo 2013; Rehman and Jingdong 2017; Rehman et al 2017; Rauf et al 2017; Ullah et al 2018). None have explored the effects of cereal production, i.e., maize, rice, and wheat on agriculture economic growth in India. This paper fills the knowledge gap by exploring the effects of maize, rice, and wheat production on agriculture production in India during 1960–2019 using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model.
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