Astrology and Modern Science Revisited

Abstract

Lawrence E. Jerome [1] has attacked astrology as a science on the grounds that 'there can be no scientific validity in the methods and predictions of astrology, since astrology originated as a magical system and the passage of some 6000 years has not altered the fallacious assumptions upon which it rests'. In rebuttal to this argument, James R. Hein [2] has asserted that the 'critical analysis' provided by Jerome is severely deficient because (1) his assumptions were unjustified and an inaccurate depiction of reality, and (2) he offers no empirical evidence in defense of his position (cf. also [3, 4]). We wish to comment on the views of both Jerome and Hein, as well as offer some empirical evidence regarding the predictive content of astrology. Prior to the assessment of our empirical evidence, however, we briefly discuss the content and testing of a positive science and offer some insights into the role of assumptions in ascertaining the validity of scientific theory. According to Milton Friedman in his Essays in Positive Economics: 'The ultimate goal of a positive science is the development of a or that yields valid and meaningful (i.e. not truistic) predictions about phenomena not yet observed. Such a theory is, in general, a complex intermixture of two elements. In part, it is a language designed to promote systematic and organized methods of reasoning. In part, it is a body of substantive hypotheses designed to abstract essential features of complex reality' [5, p. 7]. And, further, he says: 'Viewed as a body of substantive hypotheses, theory is to be judged by its predictive power for the class of phenomena which it is intended to explain. Only factual evidence can show whether it is right or wrong or, better, tentatively as valid or rejected. [T]he only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of its predictions with experience. The hypothesis is rejected if its predictions are contradicted (frequently or more often than predictions from an alternative hypothesis); it is accepted if its