Abstract
ABSTRACT This paper critiques the definitions of assumptions in intelligence analysis, highlighting their lack of clarity and precision. It proposes more specific definitions for assumption, presumption, and implicit assumption, emphasizing the overlooked importance of presumptions. The paper aims to enhance the understanding of assumptions among intelligence analysts, improving their ability to identify and work with various types of assumptions. The discussion includes an examination of the circularity and confusion in existing definitions, the importance of recognizing different types of assumptions, and the need for precise terminology in training. Additionally, the paper delves into background assumptions, the role of presumptions in gap closing, and the Toulmin method applied to working with assumptions.
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