Assumed Policy Similarity and Voter Preference

Abstract

The effects of attitude similarity on voters' preferences were examined. Using secondary analyses, the authors created measures of assumed similarity across 6 issues between voters and U.S. presidential candidates (in 1972). Greater similarity was associated with greater attraction (operationalized in terms of voters' presidential preferences). In 2 independent analyses, perceived similarity resulted in predictive accuracy of 84% to 88%. In a 3rd analysis, the predictive efficiency of each of 6 similarity measures was determined and used to develop a model that accurately predicted voters' actions in a hold-out sample. Findings demonstrate the importance of perceived attitude similarity in determining voter preferences and suggest the utility of earlier similarity-attraction research for the development of models of policy choice behavior.