Associations of Medical Debt With Health Status, Premature Death, and Mortality in the US

Abstract

Medical debt is increasingly common in the US. Little is known regarding its association with population health. To examine the associations of medical debt with health status, premature death, and mortality at the county level in the US. This cross-sectional study was conducted at the US county level using 2018 medical debt data from the Urban Institute Debt in America project linked with 2018 data on self-reported health status and premature death from the County Health Rankings & Roadmaps and with 2015 to 2019 mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Data analysis was performed from August 2022 to May 2023. Share of population with any medical debt in collections and median amount of medical debt. Health status was measured as (1) the mean number of physically and mentally unhealthy days in the past 30 days per 1000 people, (2) the mean number of premature deaths measured as years of life lost before age 75 years per 1000 people, and (3) age-adjusted all-cause and 18 cause-specific mortality rates (eg, malignant cancers, heart disease, and suicide) per 100 000 person-years. Multivariable linear models were fitted to estimate the associations between medical debt and health outcomes. A total of 2943 counties were included in this analysis. The median percentage of the county population aged 65 years or older was 18.3% (IQR, 15.8%-20.9%). Across counties, a median 3.0% (IQR, 1.2%-11.9%) of the population were Black residents, 4.3% (IQR, 2.3%-9.7%) were Hispanic residents, and 84.5% (IQR, 65.7%-93.3%) were White residents. On average, 19.8% (range, 0%-53.6%) of the population had medical debt. After adjusting for county-level sociodemographic characteristics, a 1-percentage point increase in the population with medical debt was associated with 18.3 (95% CI, 16.3-20.2) more physically unhealthy days and 17.9 (95% CI, 16.1-19.8) more mentally unhealthy days per 1000 people during the past month, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03-1.21) years of life lost per 1000 people, and an increase of 7.51 (95% CI, 6.99-8.04) per 100 000 person-years in age-adjusted all-cause mortality rate. Associations of medical debt and elevated mortality rates were consistent for all leading causes of death, including cancer (1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.22]), heart disease (1.39 [95% CI, 1.21-1.57]), and suicide (0.09 [95% CI, 0.06-0.11]) per 100 000 person-years. Similar patterns were observed for associations between the median amount of medical debt and the aforementioned health outcomes. These findings suggest that medical debt is associated with worse health status, more premature deaths, and higher mortality rates at the county level in the US. Therefore, policies increasing access to affordable health care, such as expanding health insurance coverage, may improve population health.