Associations of clinical and biomarker variables with cartilage damage in painful pre-radiographic knee osteoarthritis. results from a population-based study

Abstract

based on the SHCR data from years 1999-2011. We applied two scenarios to the age-specific (age 20-65 and >65 years) population structure prognosis for Skane provided by Statistics Sweden. In scenario 1 (conservative) we assumed that the age-specific prevalence would remain constant. In scenario 2 we assumed that the age-specific prevalence of knee OA would increase relatively by 2.6% per year in the first 10 years and by 2% per year in the next 10 years for those aged 65 and by 1.6% per year in the first 10 years and by 1.2% per year in the next 10 years for the population >65. Initial values for that increase are based on the previously published changes in the prevalence of arthritis between 1994 and 2002 in Canada (Perrucio et al 2006). The reasons for this observed increase are not fully understood but the increase in obesity is the main plausible cause. For the OA in the hip or hand we used half of the increase for knee OA because the impact of the increase in body mass index on the consultation prevalence in those sites is probably lower. Results: In the conservative scenario, which solely depends on changes in age distribution of the population, the consultation prevalence of knee OA in adults (aged 20+) will increase from 9.0% in 2011 to 9.9% in 2030, hip OA from 4.0% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2030 and the consultation prevalence of hand OA in from 2.7% in 2011 to 3.0% in 2030 (Figure). Assuming the second scenario, i.e., an increase in age-specific prevalence, the consultation prevalence of knee, hip and hand OA in adults will increase to 13.6%, 5.3% and 3.5% in 2030, respectively. Over a 20year period, this corresponds to a relative increase in prevalence of subjects who have consulted due to OA by 51% for the knee, 32% for the hip, and 29% for hand OA. Conclusions: There is a likely scenario for a 30% to 50% increase in OA consultation prevalence in 20 years from now. Results suggest that fighting the negative impact of potentially modifiable risk factors such as obesity and injury will be of primary importance to reduce the occurrence of the OA in the future.