Associations between Japan’s consumer confidence index and emotion-related variables such as depression, anxiety, and positive affect

Abstract

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which is an indicator of people’s subjective outlook for the economy, is claimed to have affective dimensions, but research exploring its emotional aspects is scant. We explore association and causality between the CCI and variables denoting three emotion-related psychological states: depression, anxiety, and positive affect. Study 1 used the data of a three-arm internet-based randomized controlled trial (RCT) which examined two types of psychological intervention intended to alleviate depression. As the data was four-wave panel (longitudinal) data at six-week intervals, we examined associations between the CCI and the three emotion-related variables by applying the fixed-effects model and random-effects model (Study 1A). We also examined whether psychological interventions enhance the CCI (Study 1B). Study 2 was based on an online observation in which the CCI and the three emotion-related variables were recorded three times at two-month intervals, thus three-wave panel data was constructed. In Study 2, we examined associations between the CCI and the three emotion-related variables in the same way as Study 1A. Results confirm an association but not causality between the CCI and anxiety as well as positive affect. Existence of causality and association between the CCI and depression was not confirmed.