Associations between Greenspace and Gentrification-Related Sociodemographic and Housing Cost Changes in Major Metropolitan Areas across the United States.

Leah H Schinasi,Gina S Lovasi,Steven J Melly,Pedro Gullon,Kathryn M Neckerman,Jane E Clougherty,Felicia Bayer,Ghassan B Hamra,Jana A Hirsch,Helen V S Cole

doi:10.3390/ijerph18063315

Abstract

Neighborhood greenspace may attract new residents and lead to sociodemographic or housing cost changes. We estimated relationships between greenspace and gentrification-related changes in the 43 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the United States (US). We used the US National Land Cover and Brown University Longitudinal Tracts databases, as well as spatial lag models, to estimate census tract-level associations between percentage greenspace (years 1990, 2000) and subsequent changes (1990–2000, 2000–2010) in percentage college-educated, percentage working professional jobs, race/ethnic composition, household income, percentage living in poverty, household rent, and home value. We also investigated effect modification by racial/ethnic composition. We ran models for each MSA and time period and used random-effects meta-analyses to derive summary estimates for each period. Estimates were modest in magnitude and heterogeneous across MSAs. After adjusting for census-tract level population density in 1990, compared to tracts with low percentage greenspace in 1992 (defined as ≤50th percentile of the MSA-specific distribution in 1992), those with high percentage greenspace (defined as >75th percentile of the MSA-specific distribution) experienced higher 1990–2000 increases in percentage of the employed civilian aged 16+ population working professional jobs (β: 0.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.11, 0.26) and in median household income (β: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.31). Adjusted estimates for the 2000–2010 period were near the null. We did not observe evidence of effect modification by race/ethnic composition. We observed evidence of modest associations between greenspace and gentrification trends. Further research is needed to explore reasons for heterogeneity and to quantify health implications.

Highlights

A growing body of literature demonstrates links between greenspace and improved health endpoints [1], including lower rates of all-cause [2], respiratory [3], circulatory disease [4], and infant [5] mortality
Median household income increased in 1990–2000, but decreased in 2000–2010; percentage living in poverty remained the same in 1990–2000 and increased in 2000–2010; median home value and median household rent increased in both time periods
The most substantial associations were for high vs. low percentage greenspace in 2001 and 2000–2010 increases in percentage living in poverty, median household income, and percentage of the employed, civilian, aged 16+ population working professional jobs

Summary

Introduction

A growing body of literature demonstrates links between greenspace and improved health endpoints [1], including lower rates of all-cause [2], respiratory [3], circulatory disease [4], and infant [5] mortality. Greenspace may contribute to improvements in physical activity [6] and mental health [7] via several possible mechanisms, including improved social cohesion [8], reduced noise [9], and violent crime rates [10], as well as reduced urban heat islands [11] Despite this growing evidence base, there remain calls for more and improved quantitative population health research to empirically evaluate and document the health benefits of greenspace [12]. Empirical research has shown that gentrification may intensify health inequities, simultaneously having largely negative impacts on the health of racial and ethnic minorities and low-socioeconomic-position populations, but protective or no impacts on the population at large or among more privileged subgroups [21,22,23]

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Discussion

Conclusion