Abstract
The success of driver graduated licensing systems (GLS) is demonstrated primarily in jurisdictions that licence at young ages with requirements expiring at age 18. In Australia, GLS requirements typically apply for all applicants aged under 25. In 2007, the Queensland licensing system was strengthened, extending the learner and introducing a 100-hour supervised driving requirement, introducing restrictions on passenger carriage at night and high-powered vehicles for provisional drivers, and on phone use for all novice drivers (learner and provisional). The objective of the current research was to evaluate whether these changes were associated with reductions in crashes (all) and killed-and-serious-injury (KSI) crashes involving novice drivers, and respective casualties. Government licensing and police crash records were linked and interrupted time series analysis was used to examine potential shifts in crash trends by rates of licensed drivers per month. Substantial declines were found in novice driver crashes (13.1% per year; 95%CI -0.0130, -0.0096), crash casualties (13.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0137, -0.0101), KSI crashes (5.4% per year; 95%CI -0.0080, -0.0046) and associated casualties (5.2% per year; 95%CI -0.0075, -0.0039). Compared to the total licensed driver population, declines in crashes (3.0% per year; 95%CI -0.0027, -0.0007) and crash casualties (2.9% per year; 95%CI -0.0029, -0.0006) but not KSI outcomes were observed. More narrowly, declines were found for provisional-licensed driver crashes (9.3% per year; 95%CI -0.0096, -0.0063) and KSI crashes (3.6% per year; 95%CI -0.0004, -0.0128) that were approximately 2.6% and 1.2% greater than respective declines for 25-29-year-old open-licensed drivers. Substantial declines also were observed in novice driver single-vehicle, night, passenger and alcohol crashes. Overall, these results demonstrate that GLS can be effective in a later age licensing jurisdiction. However, KSI outcomes were limited. Modelling research is recommended on ways to further strengthen Queensland’s GLS to achieve greater trauma reductions.
Highlights
In the state of Queensland (QLD), Australia, young newly-licensed drivers are over-represented in road trauma statistics, as found globally [1]
For crashes involving novice drivers as a proportion of all crashes in QLD [Fig 2(c)], the trend post the new graduated licensing system (GLS) changed compared to the pre period
The trend in the proportion of novice driver KSI crashes [Fig 2(d)] did not change in the post new GLS period compared to the pre period
Summary
In the state of Queensland (QLD), Australia, young newly-licensed drivers are over-represented in road trauma statistics, as found globally [1]. The QLD government has long aimed to attenuate young novice crash risk by implementing a graduated licensing system (GLS) in which new drivers must first meet requirements of a supervised learner period, a restricted provisional (unsupervised) licence period from a minimum age of 17 years, before progressing to an open (unrestricted) licence from a minimum age of 19 years, with at least some requirements applying to all applicants aged under 25. There has not been a complete evaluation of an Australian GLS in which later licensing ages apply. This is primarily as Australian jurisdictions have relatively smaller populations, so that several years of postintroduction data is required to detect differences in crash and injury rates [6]. Most previous GLS evaluations have focused on potential reductions in young driver crashes or casualty crashes, rather than reductions in the number of actual casualties (i.e. people injured, which could include the driver, passenger and/or other road users) in these crashes, which are arguably the more important metric in determining the value of such interventions
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