Associations between atmospheric PM2.5 exposure and carcinogenic health risks: Surveillance data from the year of lowest recorded levels in Beijing, China

Abstract

Scant research has pinpointed the year of minimum PM2.5 concentration through extensive, uninterrupted monitoring, nor has it thoroughly assessed carcinogenic risks associated with analyzing numerous components during this nadir in Beijing. This study endeavored to delineate the atmospheric PM2.5 pollution in Beijing from 2015 to 2022 and to undertake comprehensive evaluation of carcinogenic risks associated with the composition of atmospheric PM2.5 during the year exhibiting the lowest concentration. PM2.5 concentrations were monitored gradually in 9 districts of Beijing for 7 consecutive days per month from 2015 to 2022, and 32 kinds of PM2.5 components collected in the lowest PM2.5 concentration year were analyzed. This comprehensive dataset served as the basis for carcinogenic risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation. And we applied the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) method to identity the sources of atmospheric PM2.5. Furthermore, we integrated this source appointment model with risk assessment model to discern the origins of these risks. The findings revealed that the annual average PM2.5 concentration in 2022 stood at 43.1 μg/m3, marking the lowest level recorded. The mean carcinogenic risks of atmospheric PM2.5 exposure calculated at 6.30E-6 (empirical 95% CI 1.09E-6 to 2.25E-5) in 2022. The PMF model suggested that secondary sources (35.4%), coal combustion (25.6%), resuspended dust (15.1%), biomass combustion (14.1%), vehicle emissions (7.1%), industrial emissions (2.0%) and others (0.7%) were the main sources of atmospheric PM2.5 in Beijing. The mixed model revealed that coal combustion (2.41E-6), vehicle emissions (1.90E-6) and industrial emissions (1.32E-6) were the main sources of carcinogenic risks with caution. Despite a continual decrease in atmospheric PM2.5 concentration in recent years, the lowest concentration levels still pose non-negligible carcinogenic risks. Notably, the carcinogenic risks associated with metals and metalloids exceeded that of PAHs. And the distribution of risk sources did not align proportionally with the distribution of PM2.5 mass concentration.