Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

Joacim Rocklöv,Sara De Luna,Barbara Schumann,Per Arnqvist,Sören Edvinsson

doi:10.3390/ijerph110706940

Joacim Rocklöv, Sara De Luna + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110706940

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Abstract

Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation), while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature) and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation) approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

Highlights

In recent years, interest in the role of weather and climate on health of pre-industrial societies has increased
In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths
This study investigated the role of seasonal climate on mortality in a predominantly rural pre-industrial society in northern Sweden still characterized by agricultural work and high mortality rates

Summary

Introduction

Interest in the role of weather and climate on health of pre-industrial societies has increased. In Sweden, in the northern parts, industrialization did not start before the 1850s, and most towns kept a rural character until the turn of the century [6]. This was the case for Skellefteåduring the 1700s and. Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern.

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