Association of low and high ambient temperature with mortality for cardiorespiratory diseases in Brazil

Abstract

Extreme temperatures are a major public health concern, as they have been linked to an increased risk of mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases. Brazil, a country with vast geographic and climatic variations, is particularly vulnerable to the health impacts of extreme temperatures. In this study, we examined the nationwide (considering 5572 municipalities) association of low and high ambient temperature (1st and 99th percentiles) with daily mortality for circulatory and respiratory diseases in Brazil between 2003 and 2017. We used an extension of the two-stage time-series design. First, we applied a case time series design in combination with distributed lag non-linear modeling (DLMN) framework to assess the association by Brazilian region. Here, the analyses were stratified by sex, age group (15–45, 46–65, and >65 years), and cause of death (respiratory and circulatory mortality). In the second stage, we performed a meta-analysis to estimate pooled effects across the Brazilian regions. Our study population included 1,071,090 death records due to cardiorespiratory diseases in Brazil over the study period. We found increased risk of respiratory and circulatory mortality associated with low and high ambient temperatures. The pooled national results for the whole population (all ages and sex) suggest a relative risk (RR) of 1.27 (95% CI: 1.16; 1.37) and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01; 1.21) associated with circulatory mortality during cold and heat exposure, respectively. For respiratory mortality, we estimated a RR of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.25) during cold exposure and a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.99; 1.28) during heat exposure. The national meta-analysis indicated robust positive associations for circulatory mortality on cold days across several subgroups by sex and age, while only a few subgroups presented robust positive associations for circulatory mortality on warm days and respiratory mortality on both cold and warm days. These findings have important public health implications for Brazil and suggest the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme temperatures on human health.