Abstract

BackgroundStudies have shown that alcohol intake trajectories differ in their associations with biomarkers of cardiovascular functioning, but it remains unclear if they also differ in their relationship to actual coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence. Using multiple longitudinal cohort studies, we evaluated the association between long-term alcohol consumption trajectories and CHD.MethodsData were drawn from six cohorts (five British and one French). The combined analytic sample comprised 35,132 individuals (62.1% male; individual cohorts ranging from 869 to 14,247 participants) of whom 4.9% experienced an incident (fatal or non-fatal) CHD event. Alcohol intake across three assessment periods of each cohort was used to determine participants’ intake trajectories over approximately 10 years. Time to onset for (i) incident CHD and (ii) fatal CHD was established using surveys and linked medical record data. A meta-analysis of individual participant data was employed to estimate the intake trajectories' association with CHD onset, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics.ResultsCompared to consistently moderate drinkers (males: 1–168 g ethanol/week; females: 1–112 g ethanol/week), inconsistently moderate drinkers had a significantly greater risk of incident CHD [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02–1.37]. An elevated risk of incident CHD was also found for former drinkers (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.13–1.52) and consistent non-drinkers (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.21–1.78), although, after sex stratification, the latter effect was only evident for females. When examining fatal CHD outcomes alone, only former drinkers had a significantly elevated risk, though hazard ratios for consistent non-drinkers were near identical. No evidence of elevated CHD risk was found for consistently heavy drinkers, and a weak association with fatal CHD for inconsistently heavy drinkers was attenuated following adjustment for confounding factors.ConclusionsUsing prospectively recorded alcohol data, this study has shown how instability in drinking behaviours over time is associated with risk of CHD. As well as individuals who abstain from drinking (long term or more recently), those who are inconsistently moderate in their alcohol intake have a higher risk of experiencing CHD. This finding suggests that policies and interventions specifically encouraging consistency in adherence to lower-risk drinking guidelines could have public health benefits in reducing the population burden of CHD. The absence of an effect amongst heavy drinkers should be interpreted with caution given the known wider health risks associated with such intake.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03133689.

Highlights

  • Studies have shown that alcohol intake trajectories differ in their associations with biomarkers of cardiovascular functioning, but it remains unclear if they differ in their relationship to actual coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence

  • Through iterative modelling that accounted for heterogeneity across the datasets and potential confounders of the alcohol–CHD association, our work has shown that incident CHD risk is significantly higher amongst both non-drinkers and former drinkers compared to drinkers who always adhered to lower-risk intake guidelines

  • In summary, the present study has utilised longitudinal alcohol intake data pooled from multiple cohort sources to establish trajectories of drinking behaviour and assess their association with risk of incident and fatal CHD

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Summary

Introduction

Studies have shown that alcohol intake trajectories differ in their associations with biomarkers of cardiovascular functioning, but it remains unclear if they differ in their relationship to actual coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence. Some clinical evidence suggests that alcohol may affect different pathways thought to influence CHD risk, including hypertension [6, 7], body mass index (BMI) [8] and lipid levels [9, 10]. This purported effect continues to be disputed [11], which poses challenges in the formation of health-care policy and can hinder wider public understanding of the health impact of lifestyle choices. Studies have most commonly used single baseline measures of alcohol intake and that drinking behaviours can change over time has, not typically been reflected in the alcohol epidemiology literature [15, 16]

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