Abstract
BackgroundMalarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM).MethodologyEpidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis.Results/FindingsPerennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission.Conclusions/SignificanceChanges in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite.
Highlights
Malaria is a serious concern in most of the developing countries including India
Application of a wide array of statistical tools revealed that malaria transmission is solely dependent on climatic conditions and there is a strong relationship between climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in Visakhapatnam
Climatic conditions in Visakhapatnam district are favourable for the transmission of malaria; the increase in incidences is majorly due to the Climatic factors and disease transmission vectors
Summary
It was estimated that by the year 2020, 36% of the world population living in tropical and sub-tropical regions of 107 countries would be affected by malaria India is among those eleven countries in South Asia region, where 1.2 billion (85.7%) of the population is exposed to the risk of malaria [1] and Visakhapatnam is one of the major districts in the State of Andhra Pradesh receiving highest incidences of malaria [2, 3]. Statistical analysis, modelling of parameters, mapping of disease density and identifying the mechanism of transmission in endemic areas of malaria are the different approaches used to provide insights on malaria disease. Prevalent malarial disease data was collated to map the intensity and density of disease and to identify the malarial risk zones at continent, country and regional level [4]. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM)
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