Association of anti-contagion policies with the spread of COVID-19 in United States.

Abstract

Background: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, raised worldwide concern. The present study investigates the association between anti-contagion policies and the spread of COVID-19 across the United States.Design and methods: We selected the most frequently implemented COVID-19 anti-contagion policies in all the U.S. states issued from 29 February 2020. Accordingly, we modified an epidemiological model and combined it with a comprehensive statistical analysis to evaluate the policies’ individual and overall likely impact.Results: For the first time, a novel index, evaluates the associations between policy implementation and COVID-19 spread at both statewide and national levels. Our results indicate that governmental policies requiring mask use, businesses social distancing, and quarantining travelers may be most effective for controlling COVID-19 spread. Simultaneously, widespread orders like school closure and safer-at-home that can be particularly disruptive to the economy and social fabric of society may be unnecessary given their lack of association with reducing infection.Conclusions: The absence of any COVID-19 vaccines during the first several months of its pandemic necessitated using governmental policies to help stop the spread of this disease. Our index showed the association between implemented policies and COVID-19 spread, highlighting the specific policies with the greatest association - mandatory quarantine upon entering a state, businesses implementing social distancing, and mandatory mask use - and those with less association like school closure and saferat- home orders. This study provided evidence to inform policy choices for the current global crisis and future pandemics. Significance for public health The absence of any COVID-19 vaccines during the first several months of its pandemic necessitated using nonpharmaceutical interventions to help stop the spread of this very contagious and lethal disease. We examine all major anti-contagion policies across the 50 U.S. states and combine this with a comprehensive epidemiological and statistical analysis to develop a novel policy ratio index. Our index shows the association between implemented policies and COVID-19 spread, highlighting the specific policies with the greatest association - mandatory quarantine for travelers, businesses implementing social distancing, and mandatory mask use - and those with less association like school closure and safer-at-home orders. This article presents a novel index to evaluate the associations between policy implementation and novel coronavirus spread statewide and nationally and provides evidence to inform policy choices for the current global crisis and future pandemics.