Association between the Risk Factors for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma and Those for Malignant Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

Abstract

Background and Aims: Risk factors for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) include diabetes mellitus, chronic pancreatitis, obesity, a family history of pancreatic cancer, and a history of smoking or alcohol consumption. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between risk factors for PDAC and malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Methods: The study included 134 consecutive patients with IPMN who underwent surgical resection at Kindai University Hospital between April 2009 and March 2015. Data on the presence or absence of mural nodules (MNs) and risk factors for PDAC were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with malignant IPMN as the outcome variable and MNs and risk factors for PDAC as explanatory variables. Results: The odds ratio of malignant IPMN to MNs was 3.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53-9.84; p = 0.004), whereas that of malignant IPMN to smoking history was 1.66 (95% CI 0.74-3.71; p = 0.22). When the presence of MNs was considered as a predictive factor for malignancy, the sensitivity and specificity were 88.5 and 32.1%, respectively, whereas when the presence of both smoking history and MNs was considered, the specificity improved to 73.2%, with a decrease in sensitivity to 42.3%. Conclusions: The presence of both a smoking history and MNs was a valuable predictive factor for malignant IPMN with high specificity. A smoking history should be considered before surgical resection in addition to the presence of MNs.