Abstract
Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have been occurring sporadically in Central Africa since 1976. In 2014, the first outbreak in West Africa was reported in Guinea. Subsequent outbreaks then appeared in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Nigeria. The study of environmental factors underlying EVD epidemiology may provide useful insights into when and where EVD outbreaks are more likely to occur. In this paper, we aimed to investigate the association between climatic factors and onset of EVD outbreaks in humans. Our results suggest lower temperature and higher absolute humidity are associated with EVD outbreak onset in the previous EVD outbreaks in Africa during 1976 to 2014. Potential mechanisms through which climate may have an influence on ebolavirus infection in the natural host, intermediate hosts and humans are discussed. Current and future surveillance efforts should be supported to further understand ebolavirus transmission events between and within species.
Highlights
Ebolaviruses were first recognised as causing ebolavirus disease (EVD) in humans in outbreaks in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa in 1976 [1,2]
Our analyses of human EVD outbreaks in Africa suggest that the onset of these outbreaks was associated with conditions with higher absolute humidity and lower temperature when their time-lagged effects are taken into account
This is one of the first studies to examine the association between climatic factors and EVD outbreaks in humans
Summary
Ebolaviruses were first recognised as causing ebolavirus disease (EVD) in humans in outbreaks in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa in 1976 [1,2]. Initial confirmed and probable cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone are reported to have travelled to Guinea [4]. These cases were followed by more extensive outbreaks in the two countries and later on a small number of ebolavirus disease cases were detected in Nigeria. Other ebolaviruses identified in previous EVD outbreaks in humans in Africa included the Sudan, Côte d’Ivoire and Bundibugyo species [1,6]. Despite recent progress in human trials of treatment and vaccines, ebolavirus infections continue to pose a serious public health threat due to the high case fatality risk
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