Association between particulate matter pollution and the incidence of mumps in 31 provinces from China

Abstract

Previous studies have found that particulate matter (PM) pollution is a risk factor for respiratory disease by affecting body's immunity and carrying microorganisms. This study aimed to explore the association between PM and the incidence of mumps in 31 provinces from China. Monthly mumps cases, air pollution concentration, and meteorological factors in each province were obtained between January 2014 to December 2017. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the associations of PM2.5 and PM10 with monthly mumps cases. We also tested the statistical significance of the differences between effect estimates in the warm season (April to September) and cold season (October to March) to explore potential effect modification. We found that a 10-μg/m3 increase (lag0) in PM2.5, and PM10 was associated with a 2.34% (95% CI: 1.32 to 3.36) and 1.90% (95% CI: 1.19 to 2.62) increase in the monthly counts of mumps cases, respectively. We also observed significant positive associations of PM2.5 and PM10 with mumps cases at lag0-1. These results were robust in our sensitivity analyses. No significant differences were found between the season-specific effects. Our results indicate that there is a positive relationship between PM and the incidence of mumps, which provides important implications for the prevention and control of mumps.