Association between ozone and influenza transmissibility in China

Abstract

BackgroundCommon air pollutants such as ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter play significant roles as influential factors in influenza-like illness (ILI). However, evidence regarding the impact of O3 on influenza transmissibility in multi-subtropical regions is limited, and our understanding of the effects of O3 on influenza transmissibility in temperate regions remain unknown.MethodsWe studied the transmissibility of influenza in eight provinces across both temperate and subtropical regions in China based on 2013 to 2018 provincial-level surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence and viral activity. We estimated influenza transmissibility by using the instantaneous reproduction number ({R}_{t}) and examined the relationships between transmissibility and daily O3 concentrations, air temperature, humidity, and school holidays. We developed a multivariable regression model for {R}_{t} to quantify the contribution of O3 to variations in transmissibility.ResultsOur findings revealed a significant association between O3 and influenza transmissibility. In Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Jiangsu, the association exhibited a U-shaped trend. In Liaoning, Gansu, Hunan, and Guangdong, the association was L-shaped. When aggregating data across all eight provinces, a U-shaped association was emerged. O3 was able to accounted for up to 13% of the variance in {R}_{t}. O3 plus other environmental drivers including mean daily temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and school holidays explained up to 20% of the variance in {R}_{t}.ConclusionsO3 was a significant driver of influenza transmissibility, and the association between O3 and influenza transmissibility tended to display a U-shaped pattern.