Association between NO2 and human mobility: a two-year spatiotemporal study during the COVID-19 pandemic in Southeast Asia

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, global efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus have led to widespread lockdowns and movement restrictions. Earlier studies have reported a notable positive correlation between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels and mobility during the initial 2020 lockdowns. However, our explorative investigation in Southeast Asia observed that, despite their similar spatial distribution, NO2 does not consistently align with mobility patterns. This observation indicates the existence of additional influential factors apart from mobility contributing to NO2 variation, necessitating a more comprehensive examination. Subsequently, we developed a trained Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model and leveraged SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Our analysis extends beyond mobility to encompass diverse potential factors such as travel modes and meteorological factors. The model results suggest that, while as expected mobility has a strong impact on NO2 column density, a more accurate prediction requires considering different travel modes (i.e. driving and walking). Furthermore, the study reveals that spatio-temporal heterogeneity and meteorological factors also play roles in shaping NO2 level. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating such multifaceted considerations in future NO2 study for a more accurate and holistic understanding.