Association between meteorological factors and the prevalence dynamics of Japanese encephalitis.

Taotian Tu,Wenge Tang,Qiyong Liu,Yang Liu,Ying Zhou,Hengqing Ji,Keqiang Xu,Yuan Gao,Lei Xu,Yaming He,Ram K Raghavan

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0247980

Abstract

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute infectious disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and is transmitted by mosquitoes. Meteorological conditions are known to play a pivotal role in the spread of JEV. In this study, a zero-inflated generalised additive model and a long short-term memory model were used to assess the relationship between the meteorological factors and population density of Culex tritaeniorhynchus as well as the incidence of JE and to predict the prevalence dynamics of JE, respectively. The incidence of JE in the previous month, the mean air temperature and the average of relative humidity had positive effects on the outbreak risk and intensity. Meanwhile, the density of all mosquito species in livestock sheds (DMSL) only affected the outbreak risk. Moreover, the region-specific prediction model of JE was developed in Chongqing by used the Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the JE dynamics and helps the local government establish precise prevention and control measures.

Highlights

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute zoonotic disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV, include five serotypes) and is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily Culex tritaeniorhynchus
Data on mosquitoes were obtained from Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CQCDC), including Culex tritaeniorhynchus density in human houses (CDH), Culex tritaeniorhynchus density in livestock sheds (CDL), density of all mosquito species in human houses (DMSH) and density of all mosquito species in livestock sheds (DMSL)
The final Zero-Inflated Generalized Additive Model (ZIGAM) of the JE dynamics showed that the incidence of JE in the previous month had positive effects on the outbreak risk and outbreak intensity [i.e. on ln(incidence), given that the incidence is > 0; Fig 4E]

Summary

Introduction

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is an acute zoonotic disease caused by the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV, include five serotypes) and is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily Culex tritaeniorhynchus. It is estimated that three billion persons live in countries where the JE virus is endemic worldwide. JE is prevalent mostly in countries of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific; about 68,000 clinical cases are reported annually, and the case fatality rate is to 30%. About 30 to 50% of JE survivors have permanent neurological sequelae, imposing a heavy burden on public health and society [1,2,3]. The number of JE cases has declined significantly Since the implementation of the nationwide immunization program in the 1970s [4].

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Conclusion