Association between Meteorological Factors and Outpatient Visits for Herpes Zoster in Hefei, China: A Time-Series Analysis.

Abstract

This study sought to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and outpatient visits for herpes zoster. In this time-series analysis, we used data from two major hospitals in Hefei, collected between 2015 and 2019, to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the risk of herpes zoster. After controlling for confounders, we adopted a distributed lag nonlinear model to probe the relationship between meteorological factors and outpatient visits for herpes zoster. The analysis was stratified according to age (<40 years, ≥40 years) and sex (male, female). A total of 43,547 cases of herpes zoster were reported, and compared with the median value, a high temperature and high relative humidity had a significant risk effect on the incidence of herpes zoster. The maximum harmful effect of high temperature on herpes zoster occurred on the lag0 (RR: 1.027, 95% CI: 1.002-1.053) and further declined over the following days. The cumulative effect increased with the extension of lag days, and the cumulative RR was the largest on the sixth day of lag (RR1.031, 95% CI: 1.006-1.056) when the relative humidity was 85.7% (77.0% as the reference). The stratified analysis results reveal that females and the elderly (≥40 years) were more susceptible to temperature and relative humidity. This study shows that high-temperatures may lead to herpes zoster, indicating that those infected with varicella zoster virus need to take measures over the course of several days when not exposed to the best appropriate temperature conditions.