Association between malaria incidence and air quality: an ecological study

Abstract

The study aimed to identify an association between the incidence of malaria and indicators of air pollution. A negative binomial regression model was adjusted for analysis of the study object. As a result, the matrix indicated a strong linear correlation between the predictors, that is, multicollinearity, which was measured using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). In the end, the variables that were suggested for the model were organic carbon (OC) and sulfur dioxide SO2, both with VIF's =5.88. It was verified that the incidence of malaria is associated with the indicator of environmental pollution SO2 and the Human Development Index (HDI). It is concluded that with the increase in SO2 emissions, the registration of new cases of malaria decreases and that the lower the HDI, the more precarious the health care and interventions against malaria, increasing the country's vulnerability and the rates of neglected tropical diseases. While it is widely known that the water´s quality affects the proliferation of mosquitoes that transmit Malaria, the effect of air quality on it is still poorly studied.