Associating the Change in New COVID-19 Cases to GDP per Capita in 38 European Countries in the First Wave of the Pandemic.

Shahina Pardhan,Nick Drydakis

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.582140

Abstract

COVID-19 has affected all countries globally. We explore associations between the change in new COVID-19 registered cases per million population and various macroeconomic and well-being indicators in 38 European countries over a 2-month period (1st April-31st May 2020). A statistically significant (p = 0.002) negative association was estimated between the change in new COVID-19 cases and GDP per capita, after controlling for key health determinants including public expenditure on health, life expectancy, smoking tobacco and sanitation. The country with the highest GDP per capita in Europe (i.e., Luxemburg) was found to experience the lowest change in new COVID-19 cases within the time period whilst the opposite was found for countries with lower GDP per capita (i.e., Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania). The outcomes of this study indicate that, in the first wave of the pandemic in Europe, a country's GDP per capita might be associated with a lower rate of new COVID-19 cases. The study concludes by suggesting that in European regions a country's economic performance should be a critical health priority for policy makers.

Highlights

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 has affected every county in the world [1]
We offer an OLS regression analysis assessing the determinants of change in new COVID19 cases per million population
If GDP per capita remains statistically significant after controlling for key covariates, this feature might indicate an association between the change in new COVID-19 cases per million population and countries’ economic performance in the specified region and period

Summary

Introduction

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 has affected every county in the world [1]. Various factors have been shown to influence the rate of change of infection caused by SARS CoV-2s as confirmed by the daily change in new cases and of mortality. Individual and demographic factors including older age [2, 3], male gender [4], socio-economic conditions [5], underlying health co-morbidities [6], ethnicity [7, 8], smoking [9, 10] and obesity [11] have been identified as significant influencing factors in the spread and mortality due to COVID-19. Grima et al [17] indicated that monitoring of demographic features, country’s activity features, economic exposure and societal vulnerability could help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID-19.

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