Abstract
The center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) has developed a radar data assimilation system. The system consists of several principal components: (1) a program that quality-controls and remaps (or super-ob) radar data to the analysis grid, (2) a Bratseth analysis method (ADAS), or a 3DVAR method for analyzing all the data except for clouds and precipitation, (3) a cloud and hydrometer analysis package that applies diabetic adjustments to the temperature field, and (4) a non-hydrostatic forecast model named ARPS. In this study, the system is applied to a small cyclone named OGNI, which formed over Bay of Bengal, India during the last week of October 2006. Three experiments are carried out to test the impact of the radar data from Chennai, India. These experiments include (1) using NCEP GFS data to initialize the ARPS model (2) using initial and boundary condition produced from the ADAS and the cloud analysis, (3) using initial and boundary condition produced from the 3DVAR and cloud analysis. The inter-comparison of results reveals that the experiment with the 3DVAR assimilation technique produces more realistic forecast to capture the genesis, structure, and northward movement of the cyclone in the short-range time scale.
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