Assimilation of historical SST data for long-term ENSO retrospective forecasts

Abstract

In this study, the assimilation of historic SST (sea surface temperature) data was performed for long-term ENSO hindcasts. The emphasis was placed on the design of background error covariance (BEC) that dominates the transfer of SST information to the subsurface. Four different data-assimilation schemes, based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) algorithm, were proposed, and compared in terms of ENSO simulation and prediction skills for the period from 1876 to 2000. It was found that the data-assimilation scheme that has a three-dimensional BEC constructed from model simulations forced by observed wind stress can effectively correct the second-layer temperature in the SST assimilation and lead to the best ENSO prediction skill. Further analysis for the long-term hindcasts shows that the prediction skills have a striking decadal/interdecadal variability similar to that found in other models. These results provide a fundamental basis for the further study of ENSO predictability.