Asset Returns: Reimagining Generative ESG Indexes and Market Interconnectedness

Abstract

Financial economists have long studied factors related to risk premiums, pricing biases, and diversification impediments. This study examines the relationship between a firm’s commitment to environmental, social, and governance principles (ESGs) and asset market returns. We incorporate an algorithmic protocol to identify three nonobservable but pervasive E, S, and G time-series factors to meet the study’s objectives. The novel factors were tested for information content by constructing a six-factor Fama and French model following the imposition of the isolation and disentanglement algorithm. Realizing that nonlinear relationships characterize models incorporating both observable and nonobservable factors, the Fama and French model statement was estimated using an enhanced shallow-learning neural network. Finally, as a post hoc measure, we integrated explainable AI (XAI) to simplify the machine learning outputs. Our study extends the literature on the disentanglement of investment factors across two dimensions. We first identify new time-series-based E, S, and G factors. Second, we demonstrate how machine learning can be used to model asset returns, considering the complex interconnectedness of sustainability factors. Our approach is further supported by comparing neural-network-estimated E, S, and G weights with London Stock Exchange ESG ratings.