Asset Quality as a Predictor of Rural Bank Bankruptcy in Indonesia

Abstract

The study aims to form a bankruptcy prediction model of rural bank in Indonesia at a time variation of 1 quarter (MP1), 2 quarters (MP2), 4 quarters (MP4), and 8 quarters (MP8) before bankruptcy. The quality of productive assets as a predictor variable consist of CEA, CEAEA, and NPL. The condition of rural bank bankrupt and non bankrupt as a dependent variable. The analytical method used is logistic regression followed by testing the model accuration. The population of this study is rural bank in Indonesia. The sample used was 241 rural banks that consist of 41 bankrupt rural banks and 200 non bankrupt rural banks. The data used are the quarterly financial statements of 2006 to 2019. The study result showed that of the four prediction models that successfully built, the 1 quarter (MP1) is the most feasible and accurate used as bankruptcy prediction model of rural banks in Indonesia that formed by CEAEA and NPL ratio. The MP1 has a classification accuracy of 93,8% at the level of modelling with cut off point of 0,29 and it has a classification accuracy of 83,93% at the level of validation with cut off point of 0,12. Based on those advantage, the MP1 was chosen as a model that able to predict the bankruptcy of rural bank in Indonesia.