Abstract

We present evidence that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and drive asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences. A single state variable drives the conditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth. The estimated model fits well the unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk free rate, equity premium, price-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk free rate and price-dividend ratio are pro-cyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross-section of excess returns.

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