Asset Price Bubble under Behaviroral Finance Theory: Based on Log-Periodic Power Law Model

Abstract

The asset price bubble problem is not only the most concerned topic in the financial circle, but also one of the most important research topics in the financial circle. In history, every time asset prices skyrocketed, bubbles were accumulated, and every asset price crash resulted in a massive shrinking of wealth, bankruptcy of enterprises, and economic recession. This paper is based on the theory of investor behavioral bias in behavioral finance theory, and is based on the log-periodic power law (LPPL) theory of iron ore futures, apple futures, coke futures and stock market indices that is widely used in Chinese financial markets. The market index and bitcoin price are empirically analyzed through the process of bubble accumulation, and the stock market index of China's stock market and the index of China's capital market are predicted and analyzed based on LPPL theory.