Abstract

In this paper, we document a novel machine learning-based numerical framework to solve static and dynamic portfolio optimization problems, with, potentially, an extremely large number of assets. The framework proposed applies to general constrained optimization problems and overcomes many major difficulties arising in current literature. We not only empirically test our methods in U.S. and China A-share equity markets, but also run a horse-race comparison of some optimization schemes documented in (Homescu, 2014). We record significant excess returns, relative to the selected benchmarks, in both U.S. and China equity markets using popular schemes solved by our framework, where the conditional expected returns are obtained via machine learning regression, inspired by (Gu, Kelly & Xiu, 2020) and (Leippold, Wang & Zhou, 2021), of future returns on pricing factors carefully chosen.

Highlights

  • 1.1 Outline of This PaperIn this paper, we propose a novel Monte-Carlo simulation and machine learning-based static and dynamic portfolio optimization framework

  • We propose a novel Monte-Carlo simulation and machine learning-based static and dynamic portfolio optimization framework

  • The framework consists of an input preparation module, a hierarchical clustering-based asset space decomposition module, a simulation and portfolio weights computation module and a profit and loss evaluation module

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Summary

Introduction

We propose a novel Monte-Carlo simulation and machine learning-based (unsupervised and supervised learning) static and dynamic portfolio optimization framework. This framework supports arbitrary objective functions and constraints, which can be either linear or nonlinear. The hierarchical or regular clustering-based asset space decomposition module tries to partition the entire asset universe, which often includes a large number of individual assets, based on a predetermined set of firm characteristics. This results in similar factor values for the assets in each cluster.

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