Assessment on the burden of bacillary dysentery associated with floods during 2005-2009 in Zhengzhou City, China, using a time-series analysis.

Abstract

We aimed to quantify the impact of few times floods on bacillary dysentery in Zhengzhou during 2005-2009. The Spearman correlation test was applied first to examine the lagged effects of floods on monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery during 2005-2009 in Zhengzhou. We further quantified the effects of 7 flood events on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery using the time-series Poisson regression controlling for climatic factors, seasonality, gender and age groups. We estimated years lived with disability (YLDs) to estimate the burden of bacillary dysentery attributed to floods among different population groups. A total of 15,841 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in the study region over the study period. The relative risks of floods on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery and attributable YLDs among the whole study population, males, females, below 14 years old group, 15-64 years old group, and over 65 years old group were 2.80, 3.13, 2.53, 2.75, 3.03, 2.48, and 1.206, 1.513, 0.913, 3.593, 0.638, 0.880, respectively. Our findings contribute to developing local strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.