Assessment of Wind Power Density Based on Weibull Distribution in Region of Junin, Peru

Abstract

This paper appraises the accuracy of methods for calculating wind power density (WPD), by comparing measurement values to the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution (WD). For the estimation of WD parameters, the Graphical method (GP), Empirical method of Justus (EMJ), Empirical method of Lysen (EML), Energy pattern factor method (EPF), and Maximum likelihood method (ML) are used. The accuracy of each method was evaluated via multiple metrics: Mean absolute bias error (MABE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Root mean square error (RMSE), Relative root mean square error (RRMSE), Correlation coefficient (R), and Index of agreement (IA). The study’s objective is to select the most suitable methods to evaluate the WD parameters (k and c) for calculating WDP in four meteorological stations located in Junin-Peru: Comas, Huasahuasi, Junin, and Yantac. According to the statistical index results, the ML, EMJ, and EML methods are the most accurate for each station, however, it is important to note that the methods do not perform equally well in all stations, presumably the graphical conditions and external factors play a major role.