Assessment of Wind and Wave High-Resolution Forecasts During High-Energy Weather Events in the Brazilian Coast

Abstract

Abstract We present a high-resolution metocean forecast model (Aimar), which provides 24/7 results for the Brazilian coast. The model integrates global model boundary conditions and detailed coastal models, especially for complex geometry areas near ports and major coastal cities. The aim of this paper is to assess the forecast reliability and to present model data compared to in-situ measurements under high energy weather events. Mean wind velocity and direction were investigated during the occurrence of an extratropical cyclone near Brazilian coast. The model has been assessed by comparing its results to two specific events, one for winds and one for waves. Results of the tested wind event show that Aimar results predict the high energy winds in advance of 5 days, while NCEP’s Global Forecast System Ensemble (GFSe) predicted the same event in advance of 2–3 days, for the region of Santos city. Results of the tested wave event show that Aimar forecasts properly represent the wave propagation for complex geometry coasts. The high-resolution coastal model could predict the nearshore state of sea agitation caused by the passage of a cold front. Model agreement with in-situ wave measurements adjacent to Rio de Janeiro-RJ city were considered Excellent and Good, according to statistical parameters R and RMAE. These results show that high-resolution coastal forecast models can be applied to increase the efficiency, resource uses and reduce the risks for marine operations and engineering works.