Assessment of wind and photovoltaic power potential in China

Abstract

Decarbonization of the energy system is the key to China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. However, the potential of wind and photovoltaic (PV) to power China remains unclear, hindering the holistic layout of the renewable energy development plan. Here, we used the wind and PV power generation potential assessment system based on the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) method to investigate the wind and PV power generation potential in China. Firstly, the high spatial-temporal resolution climate data and the mainstream wind turbines and PV modules, were used to assess the theoretical wind and PV power generation. Then, the technical, policy and economic (i.e., theoretical power generation) constraints for wind and PV energy development were comprehensively considered to evaluate the wind and solar PV power generation potential of China in 2020. The results showed that, under the current technological level, the wind and PV installed capacity potential of China is about 56.55 billion kW, which is approximately 9 times of those required under the carbon neutral scenario. The wind and PV power generation potential of China is about 95.84 PWh, which is approximately 13 times the electricity demand of China in 2020. The rich areas of wind power generation are mainly distributed in the western, northern, and coastal provinces of China. While the rich areas of PV power generation are mainly distributed in western and northern China. Besides, the degree of tapping wind and PV potential in China is not high, and the installed capacity of most provinces in China accounted for no more than 1% of the capacity potential, especially in the wind and PV potential-rich areas.