Assessment of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Dynamics in Greece and Future Implications.

Abstract

The emergence of West Nile Virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) has contributed to multiple major human outbreaks in Greece since 2010. Studies to date investigating biological and environmental factors that contribute to West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission have resulted in complex statistical models. We sought to examine open publicly available data to ascertain if a predictive risk assessment could be employed for WNV-2 in Greece. Based on accessible data, factors such as precipitation, temperature, and range of avian host species did not yield conclusive outcomes. However, by measuring the average rate of temperature change leading up to peak caseloads, we found a predictive characteristic to the timing of outbreaks. Detailed evolutionary studies revealed possible multiple introductions of WNV-2 in Europe, and that Greece acts through a source-sink inversion model, thereby allowing continued reseeding of WNV transmission each year by overwintering the Culex pipiens mosquito vector. Greece has proven an excellent model in WNV surveillance and has demonstrated the importance of rapid reporting for proper preparedness and response to vector-borne diseases.