Assessment of water resources carrying capacity based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation – case study of Jinan, China

Abstract

Abstract Jinan is a city that typifies the water resource shortage in North China. This study selected nine indices to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), which is an important constraining factor in relation to socioeconomic development and the ecological environment. The AHP-CRITIC weighting method was applied to determine the index weighting, and WRCC dynamics during 2011–2016 were analysed and evaluated quantitatively using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results revealed the following. (1) During 2011–2016, the comprehensive score of the WRCC was <0.4, indicating poor WRCC. (2) The degree membership of the average evaluation results to V1, V2, and V3 increased successively during 2011–2016. The degree membership of V2 in 2011–2013 was greater than that of V3; however, the situation was reversed during 2014–2016. (3) The indices of available amount of water resources per capita, utilization rate of water resources, water supply per capita, modulus of water supply, quota of domestic water demand, and population density were factors that affected the WRCC of Jinan unfavourably. Conversely, the indices of water demand per 10,000 Yuan industrial output value and water use rate of the ecological environment were factors that played positive roles in improving the WRCC.