Abstract
Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, “unsupervised” and “supervised”, were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000–2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations (p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.
Highlights
Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, predominantly Arizona and California [1,2]
This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability
The supervised percentile index was most highly significantly correlated with both coccidioidomycosis incidence and climate variability
Summary
Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, predominantly Arizona and California [1,2]. Known as Valley Fever, the infection arises from the inhalation of Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii spores [1]. The inhalation of one spore can result in illness; approximately 40% of infected people experience symptoms that can range from mild (e.g., flu-like) to severe (e.g., community acquired pneumonia, meningitis, and disseminated infections) [3,4,5]. Coccidioidomycosis incidence measures are subject to numerous environmental factors, climate, host population susceptibility, human activity, and case detection and reporting practices. Reported coccidioidomycosis incidence has generally increased in the United States since. Given the overall increase in coccidioidomycosis incidence, the identification of populations
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