Assessment of Urban Water Supply Options by Using Fuzzy Possibilistic Theory

Abstract

A comprehensible framework for assessing water supply risk based on existing and under-construction projects is provided. In the proposed framework, the risk factors of current and future water supply options were first investigated using the Fuzzy Delphi method. Then, according to a survey of experts, the probability of the risk for each water supply option was assessed. Markowitz’s theory was used, in the form of an opportunity from the optimistic to the most pessimistic possible case of the risk pool. The results showed that the framework based on the Fuzzy Delphi and possibility theory is befitting to information gathered from experts. Such a framework can provide a simple method to apply the proposed methodology to other water management projects, where, despite the high level of investment, there is no clear idea of the risks and their consequences.