Assessment of Urban Local High-Temperature Disaster Risk and the Spatially Heterogeneous Impacts of Blue-Green Space

Abstract

Urban high-temperature disasters have gradually emerged as a significant threat to human society. Therefore, it is crucial to assess and identify areas at risk of such disasters and implement urban planning measures aimed at mitigating their impact. Additionally, a multitude of studies have demonstrated the significant cooling effect of urban blue-green spaces (UGBS), which play a pivotal role in urban environments. Incorporating a UBGS layout into planning and evaluation processes has substantial potential for mitigating high-temperature disasters. This paper presents the construction of a set of assessment processes for mitigating urban high-temperature disaster risk using a UBGS structure layout specifically for the main urban area of Harbin, China. We employed GIS and multi-source remote sensing imagery to develop local climate zone (LCZ) maps applicable to the designated study area. The differentiated impact of UBGS factors on high-temperature disaster risk was determined using the multi-scale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR). The results showed the following: (a) There was an overall low risk level, with 19.61% of the high-risk areas concentrated within the second ring road, forming a spatial pattern characterized by “one line, one cluster”. (b) The risk of the building category LCZs was generally higher than that of the natural category LCZs. The risk of the architectural LCZs could be summarized as the risk of low-density LCZs being smaller than that of the high-density LCZs, except LCZ 5. The mean value of the LCZ 2 and LCZ 5 types was the highest. (c) Through indicator screening, AREA_MN, SHAPE_MN, PD, and NP were found to be significant determinants influencing the risk, and the effectiveness and spatial differentiation of these main factors exhibited notable disparities. (d) By comparing different LCZ types, we concluded that the mitigation effect of these factors on risk may be interfered with by building height (BH); NP may be positively interfered with by BH; and PD and SHAPE_MN may be negatively interfered with by BH. The research results provided a new perspective and practical scientific basis for high-temperature disaster risk-mitigation planning based on UBGSs under LCZ classification.