Assessment of trends in climatic extremes from observational data in the Kashmir basin, NW Himalaya.

Abstract

The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024°C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate.