Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models

Abstract

The reliability of the enhanced greenhouse regional response of global climate models is often assessed by comparing their current climate simulation against observations. To evaluate this approach, we investigate the relationship between inter‐model similarity in patterns of current regional climate and inter‐model similarity in patterns of regional enhanced greenhouse response using data from a multi‐model database. Correlations of moderate magnitude are common, indicating the value of testing the current regional climate simulation of models. Notably, relationships vary significantly regionally (e.g., are weakest in the tropics), cross variables (e.g., current climate mean sea level pressure is related to temperature and precipitation change in some extra‐tropical regions) and can be insensitive to whether the current climate is assessed in the region concerned or globally. The concept demonstrated here can provide a basis for evaluating and weighting models for use in preparing projections of regional climate change.