Assessment of the sensitivity of vegetation to El-Niño/Southern Oscillation events over China

Abstract

This research explores the sensitivity of vegetation in China to El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1982 to 2006. The ENSO events are defined by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and variation in vegetation cover is captured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Pearson’s χ2 test was used to identify the areas where the variation in vegetation was sensitive to El Niño and La Niña events. The difference in the sensitivity of various ecosystems was investigated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product in 2000. Composite NDVI graphs during El Niño, La Niña and non-ENSO years were also produced to investigate the ENSO relationship with the six vegetation ecosystems during El Niño, La Niña and normal phases. The results show that most of the ENSO-sensitive land in China is only affected by one of the two phases of ENSO events, and the area of El Niño-sensitive vegetation is much larger than that of La Niña-sensitive vegetation. North China and the Hengduan Mountains are the two cores of the El Niño-sensitive areas, while the La Niña-sensitive areas are mainly distributed in the central, northwest and northeast regions of China. The sensitivity of vegetation varies across ecosystems: grassland and shrubland had the largest share of El Niño-sensitive areas, and sparse vegetation and savanna were the most sensitive to La Niña events. Overall, the impacts of El Niño events on vegetation in China had regular seasonal variation, while the impacts of La Niña events had regular zonal distribution.