Assessment of the risks of construction of transport infrastructure facilities

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the analysis and risk assessment of a company engaged in the construction of transport infrastructure facilities. Using the method of expert assessments, the risks that the company may face at the stages of organizational and technological preparation and the construction stage were identified. Each risk was assessed from two perspectives. The first is the determination of the probability of risk occurrence (in percentages and fractions of units). The second is an assessment of the losses that the risk carries if it is realized (in shares of the planned profit). Based on the grouping (identifying four risk groups with different priorities) and calculating the weights of groups and risks, the risks of a construction company were assessed and ranked, and the most significant of them were identified. These are risks associated with shortcomings in design and survey work, reduced funding for construction work, low-skilled workers, as well as the risk of an increase in the cost of materials and structures, the risk of defects and technology violations. For visual demonstration and systematization of risks, the method of risk mapping was used. According to the results of the mapping study, the most dangerous risks are the risks of the “red” zone – these are the risks associated with the shortcomings of design and survey work and the risks of injury. The criterion for their inclusion in the “red zone” is high potential losses. When analyzing and assessing risks, in our opinion, it is necessary to use both of these methods, since based on the method of expert assessments using priority groups, the most significant factors and risks are identified, taking into account two components: the likelihood of their implementation and the magnitude of potential losses. The risk mapping method allows one to rank these risks and identify, on the one hand, risks with the highest probability of realization, on the other hand, risks that carry potentially high losses.