Assessment of the Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease among Beef Cattle at Slaughter from East African Production Systems.

Julie Adamchick,Andres M Perez,Karl M Rich

doi:10.3390/v13122407

Julie Adamchick, Andres M Perez + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122407

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Journal: Viruses	Publication Date: Dec 1, 2021
Citations: 2	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Minnesota, Oklahoma State University

Abstract

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country.

Highlights

Livestock and animal products comprise a large portion of the economy for East African countries, including Kenya and Uganda
We modeled the risk of foot and mouth disease (FMD) infection among cattle at the time of slaughter for cattle originating from four different management systems under current conditions in Kenya and in Uganda
These values and relationships provide an essential input for further evaluation of marketing and risk management considerations, a full analysis requires more than the probability of occurrence

Summary

Introduction

Livestock and animal products comprise a large portion of the economy for East African countries, including Kenya and Uganda. In Uganda, livestock accounts for 4.3% of national gross domestic product (GDP), 58% of households own livestock, and 92% of those are subsistence farmers [2]. If each country were able to expand into international markets and increase the sales volume and margins received for animal-source goods, these countries could improve livelihoods for participants in the agricultural sector and strengthen the infrastructure that supports animal health, production, and food safety. For these reasons, market access can be viewed as a tool toward economic growth as well as improved public health and food security [3]

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