Assessment of the prospects for changing the demographic situation in the regions of Russia, taking into account the development of social infrastructure

Abstract

The current situation in the field of demographic development in Russia is characterized by a combination of many heterogeneous factors, the overwhelming majority of which are negative. Thus, the risk is posed by the aging of the population, changes in reproductive behavior, an increase in the demographic burden, a decrease in real incomes of a significant share of the population, etc. Socio-economic factors and living conditions of the population have a significant impact on demographic processes. The article examines the issues of assessing the impact of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a high degree of differentiation in all key indicators of regional development, including the relationship between the parameters of demographic development and the development of the social infrastructure of the region. An approach to the grouping of regions, taking into account the interval estimation of each of the considered parameters, is proposed. This approach has been tested on three key parameters of population movement – fertility, mortality and migration. The obtained results of the grouping of regions were used in the formation of a set of regression equations describing the dependence of the values of the parameters of population movement on the level of development of social infrastructure and the group numbers assigned to the regions. In the course of the study, rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were obtained from the standpoint of the parameters under consideration and a mid-term forecast of changes in the population growth rate was formed. Thus, the authors have shown that social infrastructure, acting as a component of the general regional infrastructure, with which people directly interact and which, itself being a reflection of the development of the regional economy, directly affects the reproductive and migratory behavior of Russian citizens.